Shelby Joe | (Contradicting) Points of View

Expected Utility From Talking with Iran

April 8, 2009 – 11:14 pm
The Iran Question seems to never go away.  It was at the forefront of policy issues facing the waning Bush administration in early 2007.  In this term paper for a Rice foreign policy class, I explore the U.S.'s stance towards Iran while also analyzing an expected utility model.  SAJ --  Bruce Bueno De Mesquita’s expected utility model has proven its value as a tool that can make reliable forecasts on a broad range of policy issues.  Since adapting the model from economics to the field of political science in 1981, Bueno de Mesquita along with other eminent political scientists have expounded upon and refined the theory to the extent that it has accurately predicted policy decisions in events ranging from the return of Hong Kong to the Peoples Republic of China[1] to the outcome of the Cold War[2] to the next leader of post Khomeini Iran[3].  Given the demonstrated robustness and ...

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Ride Metro Rail

April 8, 2009 – 11:07 pm
I am admittedly a huge fan of the Houston Metro Rail.  I tried to put some thought into my enthusiasm when I completed this term paper for an urban politics class at Rice at the end of 2006.  SAJ -- An enthusiastic Houston Mayor Lee Brown and officials from Houston’s transit authority, METRO, drove gold spikes into the ground on Tuesday, March 13, 2001, in a ceremony to inaugurate the beginning of construction of METRORail’s first light rail line.  The precious metal metaphor inevitably vexed many opponents of the 7.5-mile line given the $324 million cost paid for entirely using local funds.  The expense seemed even more outrageous given that the line was not projected to reduce congestion or related air pollution.  Conversely, supporters of the line argued that the rail would be a cleaner and quieter substitute to buses along the route, serve as a catalyst for the revitalization of ...

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Chinese Rural Healthcare System

April 8, 2009 – 10:58 pm
I completed this short essay at the end of 2007 for a class at Peking University on rural economics.  In it I talk about the poor state of the Chinese healthcare system especially for the vast majority of the population that is the peasantry.  SAJ. -- During the height of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003, three hospitals refused to help Liu Ruiqiang.  Some hospital staff even refused to examine Mr. Liu for fear of contracting the syndrome.  When the fourth hospital, Number 2 Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, finally agreed to admit Mr. Liu for treatment, they required a deposit of RMB 724.  However, because Mr. Liu has no insurance and earns less than 300 USD per annum, he could not afford to pay these hospital bills.  Fearing that he might incur high debt from his hospital stay, he fled until he was apprehended by authorities.  Mr. ...

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Airbus Delay: Crisis with EADS and its European Government Backers

April 13, 2008 – 5:38 pm
This piece was my final project for a German language class at Rice.  At the time, Airbus had delayed the first delivery of the A380 multiple times leading to huge losses of confidence.  Its stock collapsed and the European governments that backed it even began to lose faith; the UK went so far as to liquidate its ownership in the conglomerate. SAJ ---   Airbus im Verzug: Krise bei EADS und europäischen Regierungen   Im Juni verschob Airbus noch ein zweites Mal die Lieferung des A380, des größten Passagierflugzeuges der Welt.  Die Lieferung des ersten Flugzeugs wird mehr als ein halbes Jahr verspätet sein.  Weil Kunden Entschädigung für die Verspätung fordern werden, werden die Kosten für Airbus von zwei Milliarden Euro im Jahre 2006 und von 4,8 Milliarden Euro bis 2010 ausmachen.  Zur Strafe inszenierten die Börsenhändler eine große Dumping Aktion von EADS Aktien, sodass der Mutterkonzern von Airbus innerhalb von ein paar Tagen fast ...

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On German-American Relations

April 13, 2008 – 5:31 pm
This paper was the final product of a German politics class at the Universität Lüneburg, about 40 miles east of Hamburg in Lower Saxony.  At the time of composition, German-American relations were suffering as a result of the US conflict in Iraq; however, there was new hope after Angela Merkel became the Chancellor. SAJ ---   1. Introduction   Nearly sixty-one years ago, Allied forces marched victoriously into Berlin having secured a hard fought victory after more than five years of bloodshed which left more than sixty-two million civilians and soldiers dead[1].  The affects of the war and the eventual Allied victory are surely numerous and often amorphous, but survivors, scholars, and historians alike can argue the most significant results are the Holocaust, the destruction of Europe’s great cities, the decline of British power, and the division of Europe between communism and democracy[2].  However, perhaps even more important than the end of the second Great ...

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Evaluating Chairman Mao

April 13, 2008 – 5:27 pm
The view expressed in this paper might be somewhat controversial.  Written for a Chinese history class at Rice, I took the point of view that Mao did a lot of great things for China; you'll have to read on to find out exactly what percentage good versus bad I pegged him at. SAJ ---             The legacy of Mao Zedong is difficult to ascertain.  To some he is the father of modern China, a great unifier, and a liberator.  To others Mao ranks at the pinnacle of the worst of the worst: a power hungry tyrant who let nothing and no one stand in his way on the path to the top.  Evidence and anecdotal truths exist to support both views, yet like Mao’s very legacy itself, even the purported evidence in juxtaposition with the well-worn anecdotes can often seem tenuous at best.  However, out of this haze are ...

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Reviewing Free Trade with P.R. China

April 13, 2008 – 5:23 pm
The following 22 page essay was the final product of a class on Chinese politics at Beijing University.  I was genuinely interested in the topic, otherwise I don't think that I could have written so much.  I remember putting a decent amount of effort into the paper's composition, ultimately completing it in Yangshuo.  I really like the 2008 Olympic Tag Line, "One World, One Dream."   SAJ --- Annual employment for the United States averaged 8,149,000 individuals for the year of 2004 or 5.5% of the total, working population.[1]  The nation’s trade deficit with the People’s Republic of China reached an all time high at just under 162 billion US dollars.[2]  To an educated, neutral observer, these numbers are not startling; in fact, these statistics demonstrate a mostly healthy American economy and an improving world economy led by China, the world’s largest, fastest developing country.  However to a struggling, middle class American, these numbers ...

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Power versus Prestige

April 13, 2008 – 5:18 pm
I have to admit that I cannot entirely recall why I composed the following essay.  Written in my senior year in high school, the essay ultimately had many uses--winning second place in a literary contest, serving as an original oratory for speech and debate competitions, and I'm sure that I used it in some form or fashion for college applications.  I should also note that the essay was significantly enhanced by my good friend Becca Loew.  Without her editing, it probably would have gone no where. SAJ ---   As America stood outside of World War Two, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt succinctly summarized the international community’s opinion about Americans: “Americans are admittedly rich, that Americans have considerable industrial power--but that Americans are soft and decadent, that they cannot and will not unite and work and fight.”  The United States’ considerable success and victory in W.W.II demonstrated to the world that indeed Americans could unite ...

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Memo on American Foreign Policy

April 13, 2008 – 5:13 pm
The following memo was written for two political science classes at Rice: one on Mid-East Politics and another on the science behind U.S. foreign policy.  The version below was ultimately adapted for the latter.  SAJ --               Since the discovery of marketable oil on the Arabian Peninsula in 1938, the United States’s foreign policy towards the Middle East has focused on enabling authoritarian regimes in order to secure a cheap and reliable source of oil.[1]  Tragically, that policy made a catastrophic demonstration of failure in the terrorist attacks in 2001.  With several thousand American casualties and the exposure of national security vulnerabilities, American citizens were anxious and demanded action; the audience cost for the current administration was very high. Therefore, with the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Washington turned its satellites towards Iraq.   An adversary since the Persian Gulf War, Iraq posed new risks as a supplier of ...

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